Is U.S. energy independence, based in part on ‘fracking’ shale deposits to access oil and gas reservoirs, just a pipe dream? A comment by JD Hughes in this week’s Nature posits just this, pointing out that production at most of these deposits declines steeply in just a few years – the industry is simply not sustainable. But why all the hype around such an unsustainable resource?

In my view, the industry practice of fitting hyperbolic curves to data on declining productivity, and inferring lifetimes of 40 years or more, is too optimistic. Existing production histories are a few years at best, and thus are insufficient to substantiate such long lifetimes for wells. Because production declines more steeply than these models typically suggest, the method often overestimates ultimate recoveries and economic performance (see go.nature.com/kiamlk). The US Geological Survey’s recovery estimates are less than half of those sometimes touted by industry.

I’ve commented on this blog before about the importance of understanding the statistical methods one employs. In the present case, industry ‘specialists,’ whether they understood line fitting or not, erroneously used statistics to predict optimistic outcomes for US energy production. And the US government and public were eager to swallow this up hook, line and sinker.